Circa Survivor Strategy Guide: Winning Tips and Common Mistakes to Avoid in NFL Survivor Pools
By Adam Ronis
If you never joined a NFL survivor pool like the Circa Survivor contest, it sounds simple. All you need to do is pick one winner each week and can only use a team once. When a person loses, they are eliminated. It keeps going until one remains. If multiple contestants remain after Week 18, they split the money equally. Can’t be that difficult, right?
It’s more complex than it seems. The concept is simple and even a novice fan can join, but being the ultimate winner isn’t easy. Lots of factors go into determining the team to pick each week. Not all pools last the full 18 weeks and some pools have extra weeks, such as the Circa Survivor Contest where the Thanksgiving Day games and Black Friday game are one week and the Dec. 25-26 games are separate weeks. The grand prize is $10 million, so a little extra work is required.
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A strategy some like to use is to take the biggest favorites each week. It can work early in the season, but it means going with the consensus and it tends to result in the best teams being used early in the season. In most pools, 18 different winners are needed over the full season
and using the elite teams early will make it challenging. The 49ers are favored in every game this season and using them early is not the best decision.
Another strategy is to pick against the worst teams in the NFL early in the season. Carolina was one of those teams last season, losing 12 of its first 13 games. The year prior, the Bears were the target and finished 3-14. Taking an average team at home against one of the worst teams can be beneficial. The Patriots, Broncos and Panthers have lowest win totals in the betting market entering the season.
Make sure to take a look at the betting lines and win probabilities to narrow down the choices of teams. While upsets happen, the lines can help direct you to the teams to select. Do a lot of research, look at injuries, team trends, and matchups to select the team each week. If you try to analyze the whole schedule and plan it out each week, it likely won’t work well. Teams change, injuries occur and what we thought prior to the season doesn’t pan out. Many quarterbacks were injured last season and several teams went from very good to mediocre or awful. Most people didn’t think the Texans would be as good as they were last season and they won 10 games. The Eagles started 10-1 and lost six of their last seven games. We learn new things as the season develops and adjustment is necessary.
Game theory is a big part of the contest. The goal is to outlast everyone and by picking the most popular team each week, that won’t do it. If a big favorite loses that week and you pick a different team, the odds of winning the pool increases. Every year, it seems as if there’s a team
picked by 60% or more of the pool that gets upset in the first few weeks and knocks out a large part of the pool. Being on the side of the 18% team that advances increases the chances of winning the pool dramatically.
The size and entry fees of the pools will vary and can change the approach. If it’s an office pool with a smaller fee and many casual players, a safer strategy can work. If it’s a larger pool with a bigger fee like the Circa Survivor, there will be more sharp minds and taking more risk is
needed. Fading the popular picks in a bigger pool could pay big dividends when you find a less popular team that wins.
Even if you’re sharp and have a history of picking winners straight up well, there’s still an element of luck. A missed kick, interception, dropped pass or fumble at the goal line can cost you a victory. Survivor pools are fun, add another element to watching NFL games and can be
lucrative if it’s a large pool. Don’t miss out. Join a survivor pool for the 2024 NFL season.
About the Author:
Adam Ronis has been working in the Fantasy industry for 20 years. He currently covers NFL, NBA and MLB for fantasy, DFS and provides betting analysis on the three sports. He is an on-air host for the Fantasy Life show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and provides betting picks on DubClub.
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